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Monday, May 10, 2010

The Decree: 2010 NFL Draft Discussion: Can Denver Turn Tebow into a Pro-Style Quarterback, or is he Doomed to the Wildcat Formation?

2010 NFL Draft Results

by: Kingpin

With so much buzz about this All-American starting quarterback, including ESPN kissing his ass all the time, there is a lot of controversy over whether Tim Tebow can run a pro-style offense. He certainly didn't look too comfortable with it during the 2010 Senior Bowl, where he gave a very poor showing. Maybe he was distracted by thinking about what he was going to say to the media about abortion.

Still, to be fair to Tebow, he was recruited into a school with an offensive scheme much different from any offense in the NFL. Because Florida ran the option so often, Tebow has become more well known for his running ability than his passing ability. Let's look more closely at the strengths and weaknesses of this hyped-up quarterback and see if he really deserved to be the #2 quarterback drafted in the 2010 NFL Draft.

Strengths
  • Tim Tebow has excellent leadership skills on the field and does a good job of imposing his coach's will on opposing defenses. If you watch most of Florida's games while Tebow was quarterback, you have to admit that Tebow's execution was very impressive for someone his age.
  • Tebow is clearly a strong-willed person, attributing to his leadership. On the same note, he is very hard to tackle when he scrambles. This is why whenever there were a few yards to go for a first down or touchdown, you could have counted on Tebow to run the ball and get those yards.
  • Excellent arm strength. If he can hone his accuracy skills, he can get the ball down field.
Weaknesses
  • Accuracy on a greater number of throws. At first you may say, wait a second, he has a career completion percentage of 66.4%...that's pretty good. Yes it is, but when considering accuracy you must also consider other factors. If you watch him play, he does not throw a consistently tight pass, and most of his completions are to wide open receivers. In his career as a Gator, Tebow has thrown 995 passes (661 completions, averaging 14 yards per completion) in 1season as a back up and 3 seasons as a starter. Compare this to two other quarterbacks in the draft this year who are more experienced running a pro-style offense, Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford. Colt McCoy has a career completion percentage of 70.33% (1157 completions of 1645 attempts in 4 seasons as a starter, 11.5 yards per completion), and Bradford, the #1 draft pick, has a career completion percentage of 67.6% (604 completions of 893 attempts in slightly over 2 seasons as a starter, 13.1 yards per completion). Combine the numbers with the circumstances. Tebow had the benefit of a great offensive line and some of the best receivers in college football, and when you combine those with good play calling, you're often throwing to wide-open receivers. Tebow's accuracy has not truly been tested. In the NFL, Tebow will be expected to throw much more often than his average of 23 times per game (as a point of reference, Colt McCoy averaged 30 attempts per game). Will he be able to maintain his completion percentage while increasing the number of times he throws against tougher defenses? My guess is no, and I'll explain more in the next item.
  • Throwing motion. Yes, a big deal has been made about Tebow's long delivery. When Tebow throws, he brings the ball down to his thigh, then winds up, then, finally, releases. In college, his long delivery has led to fumbles caused by the pass rush. When facing NFL defenses, having a long delivery is a death sentence. It gives veteran secondaries a chance to close in on your target quicker, as well as ensures that the ball will still be in your hands when the pass rush gets there. Recently, we have seen Tebow trying to change his throwing motion, but I can only imagine how difficult it will be to change how you've thrown the football for the last however-many years of your life. If he can cut his delivery in half and still have the same amount of power behind the ball, then this will no longer be a problem.
  • He's left handed. Normally, this would not be a big deal if he was starting quarterback or if he was behind a left handed starter, but plays may have to be flipped in order to be as effective for a left handed quarterback as for a right handed quarterback. That has the potential to negatively affect the offense as a whole.
Bottom Line: IF Tim Tebow gets personal attention from an excellent quarterback coach and is able to will himself to change his throwing motion, he might become a successful pro quarterback. However, at this point, I would have to say that he is doomed to the wildcat formation, like Michael Vick, until he makes those changes.

Kingpin Gives Tebow a:


What do you think? Post your opinion below.

1 comment:

  1. Wow, I never realized that Tebow threw so few passes in his career...

    ReplyDelete